Trends to Watch

Talking Tariffs

• Changes to Steel, Aluminum, and Copper Tariffs: President Trump signed a proclamation today that will implement a number of changes to Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper, as well as their derivative products.
  • Effective April 6, the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on steel, aluminum, and copper derivative products listed in Annex I of the proclamation, and a flat 50% tariff on many steel, aluminum, and copper articles listed in Chapters 72-76 of the HTSUS. The U.S. will also remove many goods from the list of covered derivatives, including those in Chapters 1–71.
  • Notably, these tariffs will apply to the full value of the product—not just the product's steel, aluminum, or copper content, as the duty is applied now. These changes could result in higher duties on many covered goods.
  • Certain metal-intensive industrial equipment and electrical grid equipment will be subject to a reduced 15% tariff through 2027. The temporary 15% rate includes most-favored-nation (MFN) tariffs.
  • Products manufactured outside of the U.S. but composed entirely of U.S.-origin metals will be subject to a reduced 10% rate.
  • U.K.-origin steel, aluminum, and copper articles that are smelted or most recently cast in the U.K. will face a 25% rate instead of 50%. U.K.-origin derivative products that are smelted or most recently cast in the U.K. will face a 15% rate instead of 25%.
  • Drawback will be available only for goods originating from nations with trade agreements with the U.S., and are smelted and cast in one of those nations.
• New Section 232 Tariffs on Pharmaceuticals: President Trump also signed an executive order that will impose Section 232 tariffs on certain pharmaceutical products. Per a White House fact sheet, these tariffs will take effect in 120 days for certain large companies, and in 180 days for smaller companies.
  • Patented drugs manufactured by companies without most-favored-nation drug pricing deals will be subject to a 100% tariff. Companies that reshore production to the U.S. will be eligible for a reduced 20% rate, which will rise to 100% on April 2, 2030. Meanwhile, companies that reshore to the U.S. and agree to MFN pharmaceutical drug pricing will be subject to a 0% rate while they construct U.S. facilities.
  • Some trading partners will be eligible for reduced rates. Products from Japan, the EU, and Korea, as well as joint products of Switzerland and Liechtenstein, will be subject to a 15% rate. Meanwhile, U.K.-origin products will be subject to a 10% rate.
  • These duties will be eligible for drawback.
• IEEPA Refund Updates: In an update filed with the Court of International Trade (CIT) on March 31, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) outlined entries that will not be eligible for refunds under Phase 1 of CAPE, the first version of CBP's automated IEEPA refund system. CBP may roll out CAPE Phase 1 as soon as April 20, 2026.
  • The following entry types are excluded from refunds via CAPE Phase 1: entries flagged for reconciliation and Entry Type 09 (Reconciliation Summary); entries designated on a drawback claim; entries covered by an open protest; entries not filed in the Automated Commercial Environment (ACE), or without a liquidation status in ACE; and entries subject to Antidumping and Countervailing Duties (AD/CVD) for which the Department of Commerce has issued liquidation instructions, but are pending liquidation.
  • Phase 1 will only process entries that are either still unliquidated or still within a 90-day window in which CBP can voluntarily reliquidate them. Any finally liquidated entries must be reliquidated without applying IEEPA duties, per a March 27 amendment to the CIT's refund order. CBP plans to expand CAPE in a later phase to cover these finally liquidated entries.
  • Per CBP's March 31 update on CAPE, the system's claim portal is 85% complete; the mass processing component is 60% complete; the review and liquidation/reliquidation component is 80% complete; and the refund component is 75% complete and undergoing critical testing before deployment to ACE.
  • Flexport advises all customers, including those filing reconciliation and claiming drawback, to file protests with CBP. Find the latest refund updates and guidance on our IEEPA ruling and refunds blog.
• Other IEEPA Refund Action Items: Beyond filing protests, businesses awaiting refunds should prioritize the following action items as CBP prepares to launch its automated refund system:
  • If you do not already have ACE access, set up your account by following these instructions. Additionally, importers and brokers must provide CBP with their bank account details for direct deposit of refunds. For guidance on setting up ACH refunds and adding or updating bank details, check out our blog.
  • Calculate the total refund amount you're owed with the Flexport Tariff Refund Calculator, and break them down by duty category.
  • Conduct a comprehensive audit of your entries, and note refund implications for goods subject to Section 232 duties. Flexport's Audit Your Customs Broker can automatically audit your entries, identify tariff stacking issues, and estimate duties you may have overpaid.
• Department of Commerce Opens Window for Section 232 Auto Part Inclusion Requests: On April 1, the Department of Commerce opened a two-week window for requests to add new products to the scope of Section 232 auto part tariffs. The Department of Commerce will accept requests through April 14, followed by a public comment period.
  • The precise timeline for the inclusions process is currently unclear. The Trump administration has completed one other inclusions process—for derivative products it added to the scope of Section 232 steel and aluminum duties—which spanned about three and a half months, from the initial request for inclusions to the implementation of additional duties.

Ocean

TRANS-PACIFIC EASTBOUND (TPEB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Carriers have increased blank sailings throughout April, with a focus on pulling capacity from the East Coast. Rising fuel costs are driving more ad hoc blanks as carriers look to optimize vessel utilization.
  • Overall import demand increased through the second half of March.
• Freight Rates:
  • Carriers have implemented April 1 General Rate Increases (GRIs). Further increases are expected for the second half of April, alongside emergency bunker surcharges (EBSs).
  • Some carriers have also announced Inland Fuel Surcharges (IFSs) to cover increased diesel prices for intermodal movements. The first IFS will take effect on April 16.
  • Carriers have pushed Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs) to late April or even May 1, given the implementation of EBSs and IFSs in April.

FAR EAST WESTBOUND (FEWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Consumer demand remains subdued amid sluggish European macroeconomic forecasts, with major economies like Germany and France projected to grow less than 1% in 2026.
  • Ongoing reroutings around the Cape of Good Hope following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to absorb structural oversupply related to new vessel deliveries.
• Operations:
  • Dense fog has disrupted operations at key Chinese ports like Shanghai, Ningbo, and Qingdao, resulting in berth congestion and delays.
  • Singapore is experiencing severe secondary congestion as it absorbs displaced Middle East volumes. Yard utilization exceeds 85%, and wait times have reached 1 to 1.5 days.
  • Northern European hubs like Rotterdam and Antwerp face exceptionally high yard density and increased container dwell times due to inclement weather and massive vessel bunching.
• Equipment:
  • Given extended transit loops, empty equipment is now taking several weeks longer to return to Asia. This could lead to a shortage of empty containers at Far East origin ports.
• Freight Rates:
  • Despite a lack of strong underlying demand, carriers defended the baseline for March rates through strict capacity control and surcharges related to the Middle East conflict.
  • The market in April will remain a carrier-dominated pricing environment, driven by blank sailing programs and the ongoing Middle East conflict. Rates are projected to firmly stabilize throughout the month.

TRANS-ATLANTIC WESTBOUND (TAWB)

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Vessel utilization remains highly elevated, with carriers reporting load factors that exceed 94% across Northern European and West Mediterranean origins.
  • Carriers have cut network capacity by 10-15%, removing certain service strings and implementing blank sailings to realign schedules and offset ongoing port congestion.
• Operations:
  • Most of Northern Europe and the Mediterranean continue to face congestion, with berth delays of 1 to 4 days and yard utilization above 85%.
• Equipment:
  • Critical container and chassis shortages persist across Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Germany, and Benelux, driving inland delays of 2 to 4 days. These challenges have been exacerbated by terminal congestion, driver constraints, and border checks.
• Freight Rates:
  • Spot rates from Northern Europe to the U.S. East Coast continue to hold steady.
  • As tight capacity persists, all major carriers have announced coordinated Peak Season Surcharges (PSSs), General Rate Increases (GRIs), and Rate Revision Increases (RRIs) for April across Northern European, West Mediterranean, and East Mediterranean origins.

INDIAN SUBCONTINENT TO NORTH AMERICA

• Capacity and Demand:
  • Major ports in Northwest India, including Mundra and Nhava Sheva, are seeing an increase in congestion driven by the trickle-down impacts of the Middle East conflict.
  • To the U.S. East Coast: Capacity remains tight heading into April. However, with only a few blank sailings this month, the balance between supply and demand is expected to improve.
  • To the U.S. West Coast: Capacity is growing increasingly constrained on feeder services connecting Indian subcontinent cargo to mainline services.
• Freight Rates:
  • Rates are increasing in April due to increased fuel costs.

Air

• Find the latest updates on global air freight operations on our Middle East escalation blog.
• India:
  • Approximately 60% of Europe-bound cargo from India traditionally transits through Middle Eastern hubs. Due to ongoing regional disruptions, these transit points are heavily strained, with backlogs of 5 to 7 days on key lanes.
• Bangladesh:
  • Local operations face disruptions related to the Middle East conflict, as well as domestic challenges like fuel supply cuts within inland trucking.
• Sri Lanka:
  • The shift from sea to air solutions has placed immense pressure on air capacity.
• Pakistan:
  • While major carriers continue to operate, schedules remain subject to sudden changes or cancellations due to regional air space restrictions.
• North China:
  • The market remains firm following a strong surge over the past two weeks. While demand from ecommerce and general cargo is showing early signs of stabilization, capacity remains tight.
  • Elevated Brent crude prices are supporting higher fuel surcharges, preventing any significant drop in overall shipping costs.
• South China:
  • Rates remain elevated. Fuel surcharges underwent an upward adjustment on April 1.
  • While traditional cargo demand is stable, ecommerce volumes have slightly cooled as shippers react to rising costs.
  • Capacity is increasingly constrained due to selective flight cancellations.
• Taiwan:
  • The traditional peak season is in full swing. For U.S. West Coast and Florida gateways in particular, demand is strong and space is reaching critical levels.
• Vietnam and Cambodia:
  • Rates in both markets are seeing sustained upward pressure, largely driven by fuel surcharges.
  • In Cambodia, capacity is extremely limited. We recommend booking at least 10 days in advance to secure space.
• South Korea:
  • Market conditions remain tight, with a steady upward trend in rates. The primary challenge for shippers is securing limited available space.
• Malaysia and Thailand:
  • Demand has seen a strong rebound following the recent holidays.
  • In Thailand, increased transshipment volumes have led to some terminal congestion. Space to the U.S. East Coast is particularly tight.
• Indonesia:
  • A post-holiday cargo rush, combined with backlogs related to Middle East transit disruptions, has resulted in severe capacity constraints.
  • Local trucking restrictions were lifted on March 29.

(Source: Flexport)

Please reach out to your account representative for details on any impacts on your shipments.

North America Vessel Dwell Times

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Ocean Timeliness Indicator

Transit time increased from China to the U.S. West Coast, China to the U.S. East Coast, and China to North Europe.

Week to March 30, 2026

Transit time increased on all three lanes again, rising from 37.1 to 41 days from China to the U.S. West Coast; 53.3 to 55.6 days from China to the U.S. East Coast; and 58.4 to 61.2 days from China to North Europe.

See the full report and read about our methodology here.