With Q4 approaching, global supply chains face a dynamic mix of shifting freight rates, geopolitical friction, and major regulatory changes. Whether moving cargo by air, ocean, or both, scenario planning is essential to keep goods moving without unexpected costs. Here are the key takeaways from our webinar.

Air Freight: Softening Rates, But Watch Fuel Costs

• Market Dynamics: Global air freight remains robust driven largely by AI and data center demand. While rates on the Asia-to-Europe lane have softened following a drop in e-commerce traffic, carriers are balancing capacity across other trade lanes.
• The Jet Fuel Factor: Escalating tensions in the Middle East have driven up oil prices, leaving fuel costs elevated well above previous baselines.
• Upcoming E-Commerce Changes: Following the end of the EU de minimis exemption on July 1, additional EU customs mandates arrive on November 1, requiring product-level digital identifiers (like EAN or QR codes) on imports.

"Air freight remains robust in terms of demand, and we see rates still being elevated versus last year... [However,] Jet fuel is one of the main drivers of air freight costs aside from demand and needs to be factored in when you forecast Q4 spend. Ensure you have contingency plans and scenario planning ready with your forwarders." Arno Hausch, Head of Airfreight (DACH & Nordics)

Strategic Action: Take advantage of softer Far East–Westbound market rates to lock in capacity, but build pricing flexibility into contracts to manage potential fuel surcharges or short-notice market disruptions.

Ocean Freight: Golden Week Blank Sailings & Elevated Bunker Costs

• Rate Divergence: Europe-bound ocean rates are experiencing a typical late-summer cooling, whereas Transpacific rates remain elevated following August weather disruptions across North Asian ports like Shanghai and Ningbo.
• Golden Week Prep (Oct 1–7): Ocean carriers are rolling out blank (cancelled) sailing programs for weeks 40 and 41.
• Bunker Cost Outlook: Geopolitical friction in the Strait of Hormuz has pushed crude oil prices back above $90/barrel. While carrier bunker costs for Q4 are slightly down due to retrospective pricing mechanisms, recent attacks and rising oil prices suggest potential cost increases moving into Q1 2027.

"The ocean network is resilient... but with upcoming Golden Week blank sailings, securing space early is crucial. The bigger the shipment, the more risk you have of getting rolled. If you book in smaller lots, the chances are much higher that you actually move on planned departures." Jannik Amstutz, Senior Manager Ocean Freight

Strategic Action: Split shipments into smaller booking lots ahead of Golden Week to prevent cargo from getting rolled, and maintain precise communication with suppliers on cargo-ready dates.

Customs & Compliance: Green Rules & Trade Deal Opportunities

• New EU Customs rules (for e-commerce shipments): As of July 1, the de-minimis exemption was removed and a flat €3 duty per declaration line on parcels under €150 was introduced. From November 1, a €2 handling fee will come on top. In the coming years, many more updates are expected that change how Customs is dealt with in the EU.
• CBAM & EUDR: Full compliance for the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is underway. Additionally, the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) takes effect end of December for medium and large operators. Importers must verify origin tracking immediately.
• New Steel Import Mandates: Starting October 1, EU steel importers must declare the country of melt and pour using mill test certificates or supporting commercial documents.
• Capitalize on FTAs: New and upgraded Free Trade Agreements (such as UK-India, UK-CPTPP, and EU-Mercosur) offer substantial tariff savings, though duty reductions are often phased in over time and require careful planning. Keep an eye on new FTAs entering into force in the coming months.

"There's a lot happening on the customs compliance side, but the good thing about Free Trade Agreements is that they actually help importers by lowering costs... Map out your supply chain, know your HS codes, and check the rules of origin so your broker can file preferential tariff claims on your behalf." Ruben Bel, Principal, Customs Business Development.

Strategic Action: Map your products and HS codes against new Free Trade Agreement schedules to lower import duties, and verify that your customs broker has the correct origin documentation on file.

Want to learn more? Watch the webinar back using this link.